2013 is going to be a crucial year for Indian netas. They are going to be really busy.
What are the crucial states that are going into election?
The crucial states that are going into elections are Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and few of the north eastern states.
Lets go state by state.
What is the state of affairs in Karnataka?
The question is right. It has been a state with lot of affairs and political drama. BJP has definitely lost its ground. They should have made the most of the opportunity given to them. Had BJP consolidated their base in Karnataka by providing a stable government it would have been a big boost for them and they could go with confidence in 2014. It would have been easy to manage 20 out of 28 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections given their reach to most of the divided communities. They have failed. It is a huge boost especially to congress.
What will be the gain for JD(S)?
I do not believe they have the muscle to get individual majority. May be if they can get 50 seats their support may play a role in forming the government. Coalition government is good for corrupt practices and bad for people.
On Rajasthan?
It should be BJP considering the fact that Congress has failed to handle few communal issues. BJP has internal issues to handle. Vasundhara Raje should be projected as the CM candidate.
On Madhya Pradesh...
It will be BJP. They have been ruling the state since 1998 and provided a better governance than Congress. People have not yet forgotten the bad governance of Congress. If Congress can get 90 seats they should be happy.
On North Eastern States..
Clearly it is the Congress.
On National Politics..
It will be a good fight. Congress has a clear head. Sonia Gandhi is at the helm of affairs and there is little doubt on the decision making authorities. Congress is clearly been driven by her. Rahul Gandhi will not be the PM candidate. Congress seems to be clear on its ideas and have a long term plan. It will be Rahul Gandhi in 2019 and not earlier. For 2014 it may be Sonia herself or may be P.Chidambaram. It is my guess. Having said this, they have problems with coalition government. They seemed to get dragged by SP, DMK, NCP and other allies. They have failed miserably to control inflation and corruption. They should try to be more transparent.
BJP has internal issues to handle. Major problem they have now is authority. They seem to be more democratic on selecting a leader. If they can quickly decide on the authority by the first quarter, it will be easier for them in 2014. They are in the transition phase. It is not that they do not have good leaders, they do not have a leader (Singular) to drive at national level. That is why Narendra Modi is a good option. He has the charm to touch the people. He has the reach. He is fearless. BJP may loose Nitish Kumar, but they will get back Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalitha. But the bigger issue is, it is hard to predict the internal divide within the BJP. They should gather their forces. Unless there is a clear head, it would be difficult for them. Once they get a head, they should start wooing allies. They are weak in majority of the NE states, south and of course UP. Their priority will be getting a leader. If they could get Narendra Modi, then it will be a good fight. India would be looking forward to such leaders! It is going to be tough for them.
But for now, it will be congress again.
On Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi
First of all, it will be a big political error if Rahul is given the batton. He is not yet in the cabinet and does not have a track record to speak except that he is a 2 time MP from Amethi and the chairman of IYC. Also considering the congress acumen, they will rather bump him up as a cabinet minister in 2014 if they retain the government. May be during the latter part of 2014-2019 he will be made a PM. But for what it looks, he is being brought into limelight in a phased and planned manner which is good for congress and shows definite planning.
On Modi bhai, BJP needs to resolve internal conflicts. It is being projected as a bigger problem than it looks like. In politics, simple things are complicated. Even if BJP can get over their internal forces and bring in Modi, then there may be problem with allies. I am sure Modi will be able to handle the allies. But in a long term perspective even if Modi is made the PM candidate and even if he fails, I am sure 2019 will be in his taking.
As far as RG Vs NM, it will be no earlier than 2019.
Happy New Year!
What are the crucial states that are going into election?
The crucial states that are going into elections are Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and few of the north eastern states.
Lets go state by state.
What is the state of affairs in Karnataka?
The question is right. It has been a state with lot of affairs and political drama. BJP has definitely lost its ground. They should have made the most of the opportunity given to them. Had BJP consolidated their base in Karnataka by providing a stable government it would have been a big boost for them and they could go with confidence in 2014. It would have been easy to manage 20 out of 28 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections given their reach to most of the divided communities. They have failed. It is a huge boost especially to congress.
What will be the gain for JD(S)?
I do not believe they have the muscle to get individual majority. May be if they can get 50 seats their support may play a role in forming the government. Coalition government is good for corrupt practices and bad for people.
On Rajasthan?
It should be BJP considering the fact that Congress has failed to handle few communal issues. BJP has internal issues to handle. Vasundhara Raje should be projected as the CM candidate.
On Madhya Pradesh...
It will be BJP. They have been ruling the state since 1998 and provided a better governance than Congress. People have not yet forgotten the bad governance of Congress. If Congress can get 90 seats they should be happy.
On North Eastern States..
Clearly it is the Congress.
On National Politics..
It will be a good fight. Congress has a clear head. Sonia Gandhi is at the helm of affairs and there is little doubt on the decision making authorities. Congress is clearly been driven by her. Rahul Gandhi will not be the PM candidate. Congress seems to be clear on its ideas and have a long term plan. It will be Rahul Gandhi in 2019 and not earlier. For 2014 it may be Sonia herself or may be P.Chidambaram. It is my guess. Having said this, they have problems with coalition government. They seemed to get dragged by SP, DMK, NCP and other allies. They have failed miserably to control inflation and corruption. They should try to be more transparent.
BJP has internal issues to handle. Major problem they have now is authority. They seem to be more democratic on selecting a leader. If they can quickly decide on the authority by the first quarter, it will be easier for them in 2014. They are in the transition phase. It is not that they do not have good leaders, they do not have a leader (Singular) to drive at national level. That is why Narendra Modi is a good option. He has the charm to touch the people. He has the reach. He is fearless. BJP may loose Nitish Kumar, but they will get back Naveen Patnaik and Jayalalitha. But the bigger issue is, it is hard to predict the internal divide within the BJP. They should gather their forces. Unless there is a clear head, it would be difficult for them. Once they get a head, they should start wooing allies. They are weak in majority of the NE states, south and of course UP. Their priority will be getting a leader. If they could get Narendra Modi, then it will be a good fight. India would be looking forward to such leaders! It is going to be tough for them.
But for now, it will be congress again.
On Rahul Gandhi Vs Narendra Modi
First of all, it will be a big political error if Rahul is given the batton. He is not yet in the cabinet and does not have a track record to speak except that he is a 2 time MP from Amethi and the chairman of IYC. Also considering the congress acumen, they will rather bump him up as a cabinet minister in 2014 if they retain the government. May be during the latter part of 2014-2019 he will be made a PM. But for what it looks, he is being brought into limelight in a phased and planned manner which is good for congress and shows definite planning.
On Modi bhai, BJP needs to resolve internal conflicts. It is being projected as a bigger problem than it looks like. In politics, simple things are complicated. Even if BJP can get over their internal forces and bring in Modi, then there may be problem with allies. I am sure Modi will be able to handle the allies. But in a long term perspective even if Modi is made the PM candidate and even if he fails, I am sure 2019 will be in his taking.
As far as RG Vs NM, it will be no earlier than 2019.
Happy New Year!
